Key Insights:
- The MSTR stock now meets all S&P 500 inclusion criteria, including a $23 billion market cap and sufficient trading volume.
- Despite an S&P Global B- “junk” credit rating, analysts, including 10x Research and JPMorgan, see potential upside.
- Strategy said its Bitcoin yield reached 26% year-to-date, reflecting $13 billion in unrealized gains.
After Michael Saylor announced strong Q3 numbers for his Bitcoin holding firm Strategy, the MSTR stock rallied 6.6% in the pre-market hours on October 31. The results came as a much-needed boost for the stock price, which has been moving sideways for months. Furthermore, it also increased the odds of the stock inclusion in the S&P 500.
MSTR Stock Inclusion to S&P 500 Likely by Q4 End
Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced Q3 results on Thursday, October 30, beating Street estimates while reporting a net income of $2.8 billion. The company reported quarterly net income of $2.8 million, marking a sharp turnaround from the $340.2 million loss recorded a year earlier.
The development led to a quick bounce in the MSTR stock price, which is trading 6.6% up at $271 in the pre-market hours today. During the earnings report, Strategy noted that it met all the criteria for its inclusion in the S&P 500. This includes having over $23 billion market cap and 250,000 shares traded every month, for six consecutive months.
Commenting on the development, Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff wrote: “$MSTR is up 6.7% because the company reported better-than-expected “earnings.” But the entire report is a fraud. The so-called earnings merely reflect Bitcoin appreciation. Saylor’s 2025 full-year guidance merely reflects his claim that Bitcoin will soar between now and year-end”.
However, Michael Saylor is having a tough time dealing with the global ratings agency S&P 500. During a report last week, S&P Global assigned MicroStrategy (MSTR) a B- credit rating, citing the company’s heavy reliance on Bitcoin as a key financial risk despite its sizable market capitalization and strong access to capital markets.
The B- rating places MicroStrategy well within non-investment-grade territory, commonly referred to as “junk” status, as the lowest investment-grade rating on S&P’s scale is BBB.
MSTR Stock at Inflection Point
Research firm 10x Research noted that market sentiment around MicroStrategy (MSTR) may be on the verge of a major turnaround after months of bearish outlook. The firm stated that investors had largely written off the company as a “broken Bitcoin proxy,” lacking new catalysts or momentum. However, it said that recent developments suggest “something has shifted,” with key catalysts now approaching.
10x Research recalled its bearish call in May 2025, when it projected MSTR’s decline from around $400 to $330 and possibly $300, citing falling Bitcoin volatility and a normalization of the firm’s net asset value (NAV) premium.
The firm now suggests that MicroStrategy stock may be approaching a critical inflection point. This signals a potential shift in market dynamics that could reshape its near-term performance outlook.
Strategy Q3 Results And Data
Strategy on Thursday reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $8.42 for the quarter ended September 30, beating Wall Street estimates of $8.15. The company posted net income of $2.8 million. However, this is a sharp improvement from the $340.2 million loss recorded a year earlier.
Falling Bitcoin and MicroStrategy stock prices have compressed the firm’s market net asset value (mNAV) ratio to 1.05x. This is down from a peak of 3.89x in November following Bitcoin’s surge after Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory.
Strategy said its Bitcoin yield reached 26% year-to-date, reflecting a $13 billion unrealized gain. The Michael Saylor firm reaffirmed its full-year target of achieving a 30% yield and $24 billion in net income, assuming Bitcoin climbs to $150,000.
The firm added 42,706 BTC during the third quarter, bringing total holdings to 640,031 BTC as of September 30. It has since increased that position to 640,808 BTC, purchased at an average cost of $74,032 per Bitcoin, the company said.
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