Ethereum’s (ETH) attempts to reach $4,400 earlier this week were invalidated by the bears. It has declined by 7% over the past day.
Yet, on-chain metrics suggest that the crypto asset’s price trajectory appears to be in a quiet equilibrium rather than one on the verge of collapse.
Ethereum HODLers Sit Tight
According to a crypto analyst, ‘Teddy,’ more than half of Ethereum’s total supply, which is roughly 120 million ETH, is concentrated among just ten non-exchange entities, including custodians, staking pools, and deep-pocket holders. This distribution means that the majority of ETH is in the hands of holders who neither flinch at daily price swings nor rush to liquidate.
Long-term holders are comfortably positioned and have little incentive to sell, even amid market oscillations, which can be derived from the fact that over 80% of circulating ETH currently remains in profit.
Teddy notes that Network Realized Profit/Loss data points to approximately 1.7 million ETH in realized losses. Despite this, the Profit/Loss Ratio hovers around 1.0-1.5, which points to a balanced flow between coins moving at a profit versus those in loss. This combination reflects the classic trend of weak hands trimming exposure while stronger holders quietly absorb supply.
Exchange flows further validate this narrative. Exchanges have seen 174,000 ETH withdrawn against 152,000 deposited over the past month, indicating a subtle yet clear contraction in tradable Ethereum supply. This means that fewer coins are immediately available for sale, which sets the structural stage for potential upward pressure if demand intensifies.
Meanwhile, mean coin age and Realized Cap HODL Waves show that older coins are increasingly active, though much of this movement is reshuffling between staking, custody, and institutional products rather than new selling. Age Consumed metrics confirm that “old” ETH is in motion, but without the accompanying surge in exchange inflows, this reshuffling is unlikely to generate immediate downward pressure.
From a supply perspective, exchange reserves have shrunk by a whopping 67% from around 10 million to just 3 million ETH, while off-exchange holdings, including institutional ETFs and cold storage, are at multi-year highs. This shift from liquid to locked supply creates a potential choke point; the tradable pool of ETH continues to dwindle, supporting the idea that future price movements could be more sensitive to changes in demand.
Dormant circulation metrics indicate occasional activity from cohorts untouched for years, but these bursts remain controlled and do not indicate a large-scale exit.
Structural Targets For ETH?
Technically, Teddy observes that classic price structures suggest ETH could revisit the $2,100-$1,800 range if capital seeks liquidity during periods of macro uncertainty, though this is framed as a “structural observation” rather than a prediction. Importantly, on-chain signals show calm as there are no major outflow spikes, no surge in profit-taking, and no acceleration of stress indicators. The takeaway is that the market currently exhibits a “calm before movement” scenario, and strong hands are firmly in control while liquidity is tightening steadily.
While unexpected catalysts, such as ETF flows, could trigger the first significant price move, the current environment is one of quiet accumulation and structural stability.
Ethereum consolidates near $4,100, holding above the 200-week moving average. Market experts highlight bullish flag formations, strong support zones, and increased trading volume, which could make it possible for the altcoin to hit a price target of $7,000 by May 2026 if key levels remain intact.
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