Key Insights:
- The Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 24 amid Bitcoin’s dominance.
- ETH/BTC bullish cross mirrors 2020 pre-altseason setup.
- Whale traders flip long on ETH, BTC, SOL, and UNI.
A whale on Hyperliquid has liquidated all short and gone long on Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and Uniswap (UNI). The whale has made 20 trades since the beginning of October. All the trades have been profitable as he has earned close to 23.7 million in profits.
This is despite severe market corrections and extensive liquidations. These are signs that traders are gearing up for an eventual altcoin recovery.
Altcoin Season Index Signals Bitcoin Dominance
Based on the Altcoin Season Index by CoinMarketCap, the market conditions are still in the Bitcoin Season. The index is recorded as 24/100 as of November 5. The falling price indicates that Bitcoin remains to be on the top, with altcoins performing poorly.
Historical records indicate that the maximum yearly outperformance of altcoins over BTC was 87% as of December 2024. The minimum was 12 as of April 2025. The recent reading of around 24 reveals that investors continue to prefer Bitcoin exposure amid current volatility.
The current bottoms frequently precede cycles that cause altcoins whenever market confidence normalizes.
The 90-day chart data can further support the transition. The Blue Altcoin Season Index curve has been in decline. This aligns with the total altcoin market capitalization.
It is currently less than $1.6 trillion. Nevertheless, the compression period indicated in October suggests the possibility of forming a base. It has been observed on several previous occasions that altcoins made a comeback.
ETH/BTC Chart Suggests Bullish Reversal Setup
The two-week chart for ETH/BTC provides further validation of the changing momentum. The two are making a bullish cross, which is a reflection of the initial phases of cycle reversal. The move has been observed before, during the 2019-2020 accumulation phase, which led to the 2021 boom in altcoins.
Currently, the ETH/BTC ratio is hovering around 0.0323, consolidating after several months of decline. The long-term moving averages are slowly on a curve upwards.
This was an indicator of a slowing down of the downward force. The formation is similar to the structure of the last cycle. The cycle saw Ethereum outperform Bitcoin.
Bitcoin remains relatively strong. However, the turning point of the ETH/BTC was a classic indicator of altcoin rotation periods. It is particularly significant when long-term holders start accruing alt-heavy positions.
Previous Altcoin Season Indexes Show Similarity
Examining total altcoin market cap charts, we observe that between 2014 and 2017, the cycle began with two distinct peaks. It was then followed by a long accumulation period and a parabolic breakout in mid-2016.
Data indicate that the same pattern is occurring in the current structure of 2021-2025. We can see a broader ascending wedge forming since the end of 2023.
The cycles in both charts resemble each other with steep declines. We also observe multi-year consolidations followed by explosive growth. The capitalization in the previous cycle increased by more than 2000% between the middle of 2016 and the beginning of 2018.
The current arrangement, as we enter 2025, suggests that the market may be undergoing a similar phase. However, this correlation does not mean the same outcome. Rather, it shows the consistency in the cyclic rhythm in the crypto market behavior.
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