Key Insights:
- Analysts expect a potential Bitcoin price pullback to this zone before a resumption of the bullish rally toward $150,000.
- A breakdown of the BTC price below the $120,000 level could push the price toward $114,000–$115,000.
- $4.7 billion BTC options expiry comes with a put-call ratio of 1.10, indicating that traders are leaning slightly toward downside protection.
Following the all-time high of $126,000 reached last week, the Bitcoin price has come under pressure and is now hovering around $121,000 as of press time. As of Friday, October 10, $4.3 billion worth of Bitcoin options are expiring, with sellers dominating buyers. Market analysts believe that BTC will experience a pullback below $120K before resuming a strong rally to $150K.
Bitcoin Price Is Heading to $118,000, Says Expert
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows suggested that Bitcoin price could be heading toward a key support zone between $118,000 and $120,000, where strong buy orders are concentrated on Binance. According to the analyst, this area has formed a significant liquidity cluster, with “billions in long liquidations” positioned around the level.
Pillows noted that a short-term drop into this zone could trigger a liquidity flush before a potential rebound, depending on market response. “If buyers step in, Bitcoin price will see a reversal; otherwise, further downside could follow,” he added.
Following the liquidity sweep, the analyst noted that Bitcoin ETF inflows will play a decisive role in determining the next directional move for BTC. Other market analysts have also shared a similar analysis.
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades stated that Bitcoin price is currently consolidating beneath a key diagonal resistance level after a sharp upward move and a sweep of its all-time high. The analyst noted that a breakout above this resistance could quickly push Bitcoin price to new highs.
He highlighted $120,000 as a critical support level to maintain, warning that a breakdown below it could send the price back toward the $114,000–$115,000 range.
Bitcoin Price Won’t Follow 4-Year Cycle
In his latest essay, veteran crypto trader Arthur Hayes has challenged the traditional Bitcoin market cycle narrative. According to Hayes, the well-known four-year cycle, which takes into consideration the Bitcoin halving event, is no longer relevant.
He argues that Bitcoin’s price rallies are not driven by halvings but by liquidity conditions in global markets. Similarly, previous market crashes, he notes, were triggered by monetary tightening rather than shifts in supply and demand. Thus, Hayes noted that a new bear market is not imminent.
Hayes points out that global liquidity is once again expanding, with the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting rates, and both Japan and China implementing easing measures. Thus, he believes that the Bitcoin price top is still a long way off, as monetary conditions become more accommodative.
Echoing the same thoughts, CryptoRus, a crypto analyst, noted that the current Bitcoin bullish cycle hasn’t seen over 28% corrections. Most pullbacks have remained within the 10%–20% range, making it the least volatile phase in the cryptocurrency’s history. Rather than signaling weakness, the analyst said this reflects a more mature market structure.
He added that Bitcoin’s current rally is no longer driven by retail speculation but by institutional factors. This includes ETF inflows, corporate treasury allocations, and long-term holders who remain largely unmoved by short-term fluctuations.
$4.7 Billion BTC Options Expire Today
Bitcoin options make up the majority of expiring derivatives contracts, with a notional value of approximately $4.7 billion. The max pain point, where the most options lose value, is positioned at $118,000, marking a key support level for the asset.
Data from Deribit shows total open interest (OI) for these expiring Bitcoin options stands at 38,870 contracts, with traders divided between $110,000 puts and $120,000 calls. Analysts note this split underscores an ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish positions. Meanwhile, the put-call ratio for Bitcoin sits at 1.10, indicating traders are leaning slightly toward downside protection.
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