Key Insights:
- BTC price holds $105K support, eyes breakout toward $125K and $141K levels.
- MVRV ratio climbing toward long-term average, hinting at bullish momentum.
- Current MVRV at 2.2 suggests BTC may soon enter overvaluation territory.
Bitcoin is entering a new consolidation phase as the MVRV ratio rises and $105,450 holds firm. Analysts suggest BTC could soon target $125K and even $141K if momentum persists.
BTC Price $105K Support Holds, Upside Targets in Sight
Bitcoin (BTC) is defending its critical support near $105,450, fueling bullish projections that point to a price move toward $125,230—and potentially $141,770. The structure comes amid what analyst Ali described as a “short-term holder cost basis” trend, where recent buyers influence immediate price action.
In a post on X, Ali said, “As long as the $105,450 support holds, Bitcoin $BTC could be on track for a move to $125,230 and potentially $141,770.” The analysis uses cost basis data, a metric that reflects where short-term market participants break even or accumulate losses. This range often dictates liquidity areas where price reactions emerge.
So far, bulls appear to be defending the zone.
Bitcoin traded near $107,000 during early New York hours on July 31, maintaining tight price action in recent sessions. The broader market remains in a consolidation phase following last week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which signaled a potential policy pause later this year. That macro backdrop may also be supporting the current accumulation pattern.
MVRV Ratio Trends Toward Historical Overvaluation Zone
Beyond immediate support and resistance zones, market watchers are monitoring Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which compares the current price to the average price of BTC when each coin last moved. The ratio, currently at 2.2, is now converging toward its 365-day moving average.
Historically, the MVRV ratio has served as a valuation gauge. Readings above 3.7 often marked market tops, while sub-1 values have indicated market bottoms. A move from 2.2 to 3.7 would reflect a shift from fair value into overvaluation territory, potentially driving speculative interest.
“The MVRV indicator is converging toward its 365-day MA. What comes next?” one post noted, suggesting BTC is entering an energy consolidation phase that precedes upward price expansion.
The pattern mirrors prior cycles where the MVRV rose after extended drawdowns, particularly in 2019 and mid-2020. In both instances, BTC prices surged weeks after the ratio began its ascent.
BTC Price Consolidation Phase May Precede Breakout
While Bitcoin’s current trading range may appear uneventful, on-chain metrics suggest mounting pressure beneath the surface. With MVRV returning to its long-term average and short-term holder cost basis rising, conditions appear to mirror early stages of prior rallies.
The setup may mark another phase of Bitcoin’s post-halving cycle. Long-term holders remain largely inactive, while recent buyers defend key price levels, leaving the market in a tight but upward-leaning consolidation.
This pattern resembles prior post-halving years, where BTC traded sideways for months before initiating a vertical move. With August now underway, some traders anticipate a possible catalyst from macro or ETF-related flows.
Although the recent ETF inflow focus has centered on Ethereum, Bitcoin ETFs remain a stronghold for institutions. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has led consistent inflows since launch, reinforcing demand from funds, pensions, and family offices.
Short-Term Holder Behavior Becomes the Next Battleground
Ali’s projection of $125K and $141K hinges on continued defense of the short-term cost basis. If buyers continue to absorb sell pressure near $105K, it may validate the bullish structure.
However, failure to hold this level could signal deeper pullbacks, with liquidity thinning below $100K based on derivatives order books. Still, the combination of rising MVRV and a defended support zone may create the technical justification needed for bulls to regain momentum.
BTC remains 35% below its all-time high of $69,000, but the broader risk-on environment could support another leg up. The absence of macro headwinds and rising ETF demand further underpin long-term conviction.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
The post BTC Price Eyes $141K as MVRV and Support Levels Align appeared first on The Market Periodical.
