The U.S. financial markets are on edge as President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause nears its final days. Only 13 days remain before new trade rates could kick in, possibly sparking another round of global trade tension. While there’s still a chance Trump might extend the pause, the clock is ticking, and markets know it.
What’s Coming on July 9?
If no new trade deal is signed by July 9, the United States is going to roll out a strict set of tariffs. As reminded by the Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, these include:
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A return of “reciprocal tariffs” against most nations.
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50% tariffs on European Union imports, which were previously delayed.
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30% tariffs on goods from China, will stay in place.
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All global imports will continue to face a standard 10% tariff.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Trump had originally set these deadlines earlier this year but pushed them to July 8 and 9 after backlash. Now, the White House has signaled that the deadline isn’t “critical” and could still be extended. However, with no clear trade agreements announced, many believe the tariffs may return in full force.
S&P 500 Climbs Ahead of Tariff Deadline
Despite the looming trade threat, the S&P 500 has soared, up around 1,200 points since the pause was first announced on April 9. In fact, S&P 500 futures just hit a new all-time high, showing that traders are optimistic, or possibly just riding the wave while they still can.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
MicroStrategy (MSTR), the biggest company holding Bitcoin, could soon be added to the S&P 500, potentially shaking up the crypto market.
If approved, this could trigger a major influx of passive investment into MSTR stock, and indirectly into Bitcoin itself. That inclusion decision is expected within the next four days.
How Will the Crypto Market Respond?
Unlike stocks, Bitcoin and Ethereum haven’t reacted much to recent political drama. But that doesn’t mean they won’t. Many traders are bracing for big price swings if tariffs are reintroduced. Social media sentiment shows a 50-50 split, half the market expects calm, the other half sees trouble ahead.
Analysts say macro fear is driving money into Bitcoin and Ethereum as safe havens. That means people are looking to these digital assets when traditional markets feel risky. But altcoins, the smaller and often more volatile cryptocurrencies, could take a hard hit. When markets panic, traders tend to dump risky assets first, and that often means altcoins. The current crypto market cap stands at $3.27 Trillion, decreasing by 1.26%, Bitcoin is currently trading at $106,960 with a decrease of 0.95% and Ethereum is priced at $2,444 with a decrease of 2.43% as per the CoinMarketCap.
Source: CoinMarketCap
A Trade War Could Boost Bitcoin
If Trump tariffs go live again and the Trump China trade war starts, it could stir inflation fears, disrupt global supply chains, and hit corporate profits. For crypto, this kind of uncertainty often works in its favor. Investors may look at Bitcoin the same way they look at gold, as a safe place to park money.
In 2024, we witnessed crypto prices surge during similar geopolitical tensions like the Russia-Ukraine War. If history rhymes, Bitcoin is likely to rally again in case MSTR gets included in the S&P 500 simultaneously.
Final Thoughts
Trump’s tariff pause could still be renewed, but if not, July 9 is potentially a huge turning point for crypto as well as traditional markets. Traders are looking on closely. Whether it’s the return of high tariffs or the surge in Bitcoin-correlated stocks like MSTR, major changes could be looming.
