Key Insights:
- Long-term BTC holders now control 15.18M coins, adding $125B since $83K amid ongoing price strength.
- Accumulation addresses bought 309K BTC in 30 days, marking the highest monthly demand ever recorded.
- Short-term holders reduce positions by 833K BTC, showing rising fear despite price holding above $100k.
Long-term holders have been accumulating Bitcoin to historic highs, adding over 1.15 million BTC since the $83,000 level. The accumulation happened in the $61,000 to $83,000 range, which shows that even with market volatility, large investors are becoming more and more convinced.
The amount of demand from addresses that have always bought and never sold has hit an all-time high of 309,000 BTC in the last 30 days. In the meantime, short-term holders look shaken, and net selling intensified with a 30-day position change of -833,000 BTC. Short-term uncertainty continues while long-term confidence is growing.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Strengthen Their Positions
Since BTC crossed $83,000, long-term holders have increased their supply from 14.03 million BTC to 15.18 million. This is an accumulation of 1.15 million BTC, which would be worth around $125 billion at current prices. Most of these coins were purchased in the $61,000 – $83,000 range.
The increase in holdings indicates that experienced participants still have faith in Bitcoin’s future. For this cohort, the average entry price is estimated to be around $72,000, which means that they are 51% unrealized profit. Such a positioning is often a sign of strong hands waiting for a potential future rally.
Furthermore, this behaviour is indicative of an ongoing transfer from speculative to conviction-based ownership.
Furthermore, over the past 30 days, 309,000 BTC has been purchased by Bitcoin addresses labelled as accumulators, a new record for monthly demand.
These are addresses that are known to buy consistently without selling, which is usually associated with institutional and strategic investors. Usually their behavior precedes major trend changes or local market tops.
Demand was at historic levels, but it was after a deep correction, and it shows confidence is coming back at higher price levels. This metric has previously peaked in times of consolidation or renewed upside pressure.
In addition, the rapid accumulation has also decreased the selling pressure, keeping BTC steady above the $100,000 mark. The market has been absorbing high inflows despite volatility without major corrections. That suggests prices are being supported by sustained demand from high-conviction buyers.
Short-Term Holders Show Renewed Weakness
On the other hand, short-term holders decreased exposure by a great deal in the past month. In 30 days, they lost 833,000 BTC, which indicates a decrease in confidence. It is the same capitulation we saw during the last correction in late 2024.
Even though Bitcoin is still above $100,000, many short-term traders exited because of fear of further drawdowns. Contrary to long-term accumulation, this suggests that the market sentiment remains bifurcated. Short-term volatility is getting more attention from risk sensitive participants.
Short-term resistance can be created from this net selling by short-term holders. But this pressure may continue to be offset by long-term accumulation. If short-term holders supply shifts into stronger hands, the market could stabilize even further.
Meanwhile, Coinbase Premium Index has rebounded strongly from negative levels in April to firmly positive territory in June, and it seems that U.S. investor demand is driving the current cycle, with prices pushing towards $110,000. A persistent premium usually means that the regulated exchanges are being spot bought.
The premium rebound has been supporting steady price appreciation with no overheating signals. The pattern of the recovery matches the previous bull cycle recoveries, as CryptoQuant data shows. In the short term, BTC may continue challenging new highs.
On the other hand, technical indicators are still bullish as the Ichimoku cloud signals are still bullish on the 4-hour chart. The accumulation/distribution line is trending higher, and MACD is also trending higher. With volume behind it, Bitcoin just broke above resistance levels.
According to Hyperliquid, the biggest cluster of long liquidations is at $105,000. That can create a magnet for short term downward pressure as bears try to push into those levels. But BTC is still above $109,000, which lessens the risk of a near term downside.
The spread of short liquidation levels is more spread out with increasing leverage on top of $120,000. This paves the way for squeeze dynamics in case prices rise sharply. That structure is currently bullish as long as major support levels hold, but favours gradual upside.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only. And they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
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