Key Insights:
- Bitcoin’s apparent demand rose after hitting -200K BTC but remains below zero
- Sentiment index fell to 44.9%, showing market confidence remains fragile
- ETF holdings dropped to 1.115M BTC, signaling reduced institutional interest
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent bounce in apparent demand has drawn attention, but analysts warn the rebound may lack conviction. While the metric is no longer at its lowest, continued ETF outflows and fragile sentiment data suggest that the broader market recovery may be limited—at least in the near term.
Apparent Demand Shows Signs of Recovery, But Remains Negative
After weeks of contraction, BTC’s 30-day apparent demand, tracked by CryptoQuant, has started to edge upward from its March-April lows. The metric had fallen below -200,000 BTC, its lowest level since early 2023, reflecting reduced inflows and risk appetite.
Meanwhile, it has recently started to climb, although it remains below zero, indicating the bounce is not yet firm.
From November 2024 to February 2025, apparent demand was positive and reached a peak of 300,000 BTC. Bitcoin was trading above $100,000 during that period. Yet, the steep fall in demand from February was accompanied by a decline in Bitcoin’s price, which fell to under $70,000 in April.
Price Pulls Back, Market Sentiment Weakens
Moreover, by April 14, the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index fell to 44.9%, below the neutral range and close to bearish levels. As the price swings were volatile, sentiment moved from near 70% to under 30% from mid-March to early April.
BTC price action has since turned volatile, but Bitcoin reached above $88,000 on April 2nd. Then fell as low as $75,000 during the first two weeks of April before a small recovery. Price dips were in line with drops in sentiment below the neutral zone.
Market watcher Teddy said: “Let’s entertain the thought that apparent demand is recovering.” Now, what happens when the next macro grenade drops?” His comments suggested that external risks like rate hikes or geopolitical tension could push sentiment lower again.
Recently, the sentiment curve has been reversed sharply, and the current reading is still below average. This indicates that traders are cautious and investors may be skittish.
ETF Holdings Decline as Institutional Demand Slows
Furthermore, the amount of Bitcoin held by spot ETFs has decreased from around 1.19 million BTC in March to around 1.115 million BTC by early April. This fell below the lower bound alert level of 1,116,067 BTC, causing an alert on CryptoQuant’s monitoring system.
Holding of ETFs had been steadily increasing from the start of 2024 up to March 2025. However, since the beginning of April, the purple bars representing ETF-held Bitcoin have been moving downward. This is a decrease in institutional exposure to Bitcoin.
A sharp drop in Bitcoin spot ETF assets indicates institutional outflows. The pace of updates may be affected by delays in reporting, but the recent trend is that large investors are participating less and less.
ETF cooling demand took place in the same period that apparent demand and market sentiment dropped. In the short term, the withdrawal of institutional support could add further pressure to price stability.
BTC Price Momentum Shows Potential Shift on Weekly Chart
Conversely, early signs of strength are starting to appear on technical indicators. The LMACD histogram bars on the weekly Btc price chart started to change from dark red to pink, which means a weakening of bearish momentum. The same pattern occurred in October 2022 and September 2023, both of which preceded upward moves.
Near the current range of $84,500, the price structure displayed a bullish engulfing pattern. This setup has previously been in line with momentum shifts and price gains.
Titan of Crypto noted, “The LMACD is indicating a clear momentum shift while price action is holding strong on the weekly chart.” BTC currently trades near $84,500, where a bullish engulfing candle recently formed on weekly charts.
While this signal is encouraging, analysts warn that follow-through depends on macro context and whether institutions re-enter the market. Until then, the recovery could remain fragile.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not provide any financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
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