Key Highlights:
- The 4-year SMA model places the BTC bear market floor near $45K
- Bitcoin trades below Ichimoku Cloud, showing weak momentum
- Brazil proposes 5% BTC allocation as strategic reserve move
Bitcoin price was trading at around $82,792 at press time, down 2.46% in the previous 24 hours. This dip comes amid broader market turbulence following a $1.25 Trillion plunge in the U.S. stock market.
According to a 4-year SMA-based model, Bitcoin’s bear market floor is around $45,000, matching previous cycle bottoms.
ETF outflows and short-term technical breakdowns signal caution for Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Meanwhile, Brazil’s adoption of BTC as a strategic reserve asset reflects long-term optimism.
Bear Market Bitcoin Price Floor Estimated at $45,000
The 4-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests that Bitcoin’s bear market bottom is approximately $45,000. This metric provides a historical perspective on price trends and potential support levels.
In previous market cycles, Bitcoin price has historically hit bottom near its 4-year SMA. This model is based on that. The chart referenced is colored regions that illustrate Bitcoin price movement through different cycle phases.
The current BTC market price of over $82,000 remains higher than the estimated bear market bottom of $45,000. This $45,000 level could be an essential long-term support benchmark amidst market dynamics.
As the chart also shows, past cycle tops have decreased over time. While Bitcoin price peaked at 10x the 4-year SMA, the last cycle peaked at 6x, and the current one is only 2.5x.
This is a sign that the token volatility decreases as the market expands. This suggested that BTC is experiencing lower peaks and higher lows, marking a transition to a more mature phase. As a result, extreme price volatility is becoming less pronounced.
Short-Term Technicals Show Weak Momentum
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is below all Ichimoku Cloud indicators (Base Line, Conversion Line, and the Cloud itself). The Lagging Span, another confirmation of the trend direction element, is also breaking downward. This technical setup typically indicates short-term weakness.
Additionally, $81,200 is the next possible support per a Fibonacci retracement analysis. If Bitcoin price drops below this level, the pressure will likely continue down the downside. However, if it holds above, a recovery may begin.
ETF Inflows Shift from Positive to Negative
In recent days, the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had mixed flow data. On March 26, the market saw a positive inflow of +1,020 BTC, approximately $89 Million.
BlackRock added +46 BTC, about $4 million, while Fidelity led with +1,120 BTC, about $97.10 Million. Other issuers also observed a combined outflow of -140 BTC.
However, on March 28, the total outflow was -1,070 BTC, which is $93.20 Million. The only recording movement was Fidelity, which contributed to the entire outflow.
This back-and-forth flow indicated institutional sentiment was still unclear and is indicative of a more uncertain market.
Brazil Proposes Bitcoin as Strategic Reserve Asset
Brazil’s government has announced a significant move to recognize Bitcoin as a key economic asset. This step highlights Bitcoin’s role in ensuring national economic stability. A new bill suggests that 5% of the country’s national reserves should be invested in BTC.
“This is more than bullish…,” says analyst Crypto Patel. “This is history in the making.” The move comes as the bill is still in the early stages. However, it highlights the growing global interest in crypto as a reserve currency and its impact on Bitcoin price.
The move, if passed, would make Brazil one of the first countries to hold BTC at such a large scale. It could also persuade other nations, especially those with inflation or currency instability, to follow suit.
It also affects long-term demand and decreases market supply, supporting price levels over time.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
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